Acknowledging the Pillars of 'The Kill Chain'

A Just Tribute to Senator McCain

In 'The Kill Chain', a notable turning point can be traced back to author's stint with Senator John McCain. Working under the Senator was a phase that shaped their career considerably. McCain, apart from opening doors in the US Government for the author, also made a profound personal impact - his heroism is an echoing theme in 'The Kill Chain'.

Sowing the Seeds: The Aspen Strategy Group

Funnily enough, the conception of 'The Kill Chain' had occurred much before an actual book was in sight. Originally requested as a paper by the Aspen Strategy Group, it blossomed into what it is today. A burst of gratitude flows towards Nick Burns, Joe Nye, and Condoleezza Rice, who were instrumental in planting this very seed.

Valuable Insights from Anduril Industries

One cannot overlook the influence of Anduril Industries on the author during their journey of writing 'The Kill Chain'. This current place of employment has been immensely influential, specifically in shedding light on the spheres of technology, business and engineering. The diverse exposure has undeniably contributed to the enrichment of the book.

Exploring Defense Strategies: A Guide

Packing a punch of assorted resources, Brose's rich anthology brings into light major topics of interest in today's military and defense strategies. From Artificial Intelligence to autonomous weaponry, the gamut of pressing subjects is astoundingly covered. Insights into China's military stratagem also make an appearance, vouching for a comprehensive guide. These invaluable references, thoughtfully selected from high-grade academic institutions, government agencies, military publications, and the bright minds of think tanks, promise a treasure trove of knowledge and learning. Each is carefully picked for relevance, ensuring a well-balanced and diverse range of viewpoints on each topic. Moreover, considering the rapid pace of innovation and change, staying updated in the evolving world of defense strategies becomes a necessity. And this anthology serves just that purpose. It serves as a beacon for those willing to delve deeper into the ongoing conversations and discussions in the realm of military strategies and defense. The ensemble is not just a lifeline to the researchers and policymakers but proves equally beneficial to military professionals as well. It carves a path for future research and investigation into these topics. Overall, this anthology is a testament to the expansive and profound scholarship in military and defense strategies, illustrating the breadth of the field. It's a nod to the diligence of experts and scholars who tirelessly contribute to advancements and breakthroughs in the field, ensuring a safer future.

A Missed Revolution in Military Affairs

Failure to Embrace Technological Progress

In 1991, the Department of Defense, under the direction of Andrew Marshall, commissioned an examination into the future of warfare, contemplating a potential revolution in military affairs. The report identified the underutilized capacity for rapid information transmission within the US military. Many believed this untapped potential hinted at the need for a new approach to military strength.

Terror Threats Shift Focus

When the horrific events of September 11 occurred, counterterrorism surged to the front of the nation's priorities. Anticipation of future threats from nations such as China began to wane, and the idea of a revolution in military affairs receded into the background.

Prioritization Missteps and Systemic Failures

The Pentagon, along with Congress, seemed to favor the familiar, choosing to invest in traditional military platforms rather than exploring innovative battle networks. As a result, many ambitious, expensive military programs failed or were cancelled, and the military struggled with internal communication efforts, specifically in sharing vital information efficiently.

Fading Relevance of Kill Chains

The traditional 'kill chains' - the process of converting information into action- began to lose relevance in the evolving warfare landscape. The focus on counterterrorism and traditional military strategies rendered the US military less adaptive and rigid in the face of modern warfare.

The Unheeded Warning and Aftermath

Marshall retired in 2015, after decades of signaling the nation's lack of preparedness for the upcoming era of warfare and emerging technologies. The neglect in prioritizing a revolution in military affairs left the US unprepared, as evidenced by the sobering events of February 27, 2014.

Unmasking the Little Green Men: A Military Shift

Unforeseen Military Maneuvers

In 2014, Ukraine saw the appearance of the so-called 'Little Green Men', Russian special forces armed with devastating weapons. This unexpected military development caught the US government largely off guard. The strong belief that Russia's activities were simply routine for their naval base in Sevastopol culminated in a sense of complacency.

Surprisingly though, these formidable forces swiftly took control of Crimea, leaving a devastating impact on Ukrainian forces and effectively changing the international border in Europe through the application of violent means for the first time since World War II.

Advanced Weaponry Stuns Ukraine

Armed with electronic warfare systems, communications jammers, air defenses and long-range precision rocket artillery, the Little Green Men proved a formidable force in Ukraine. The chaos brought about by these elite fighters included neutralizing drones, jamming warheads and identifying armored vehicles for attack. Ukrainian troops were left vulnerable, facing the imminent threat of cluster munitions and thermobaric warheads.

China's Stealth Rise to Power

The lessons learned from Russia's military prowess were significant, however, it's China's emerging capabilities that present a greater strategic threat. Since 1993, China has been quietly transforming its military, developing advanced weapons dubbed 'Assassin's Mace.' These are designed to destabilize the systems anchoring US military success, targeting assets such as base stations, aircraft and communication systems.

A determined China continues to develop these capabilities, with an aim to destroy US communications, intelligence satellites and cripple logistical systems. This growing power projection within the Asia-Pacific region presents an ominous shadow on the global stage.

Technological Shifts and the Military-Industrial Complex

The Birth of the Military-Industrial Network

The Cold War gave birth to a unique collaboration involving private defense corporations, the Department of Defense, and Congress, forging the path for the military-industrial complex. This alliance was born out of an intense need to develop military technology in pace with global threats. Taking the helm, notably, was General Bernard Schriever, who developed the definitive intercontinental ballistic missile, with potent nuclear capabilities.

Downturn in Defense Technology Development

However, as the decades crept in, processing of military technology slowed down due to an increase in management and oversight. With the decline in the Soviet threat, the urgency and thus the funding for military technology waned. Peter Thiel recounts a time when Deputy Secretary of Defense William Perry cautioned defense CEOs about a visible decrease in defense spending.

Reorientation of the Acquisition System

By the 1990s, a shift initiated within the acquisition system for military technology, focusing more on efficiency than on innovation. This led defense companies to chase Pentagon-approved contracts causing frequent delays. Meanwhile, smaller defense companies collapsed under the economic strain, resulting in the consolidation of the industry.

Reshaping by the Information Revolution

The boom of commercial technology in Silicon Valley beckoned the best of engineers and investment away from the defense industry, causing the military's technological prowess to dwindle. As the world embraced the information revolution, Washington faced an ill-prepared ambush of new technologies, leading to a challenging era in the military-industrial complex.

Growing Tech Divide: Silicon Valley Vs US Military

Information Revolution's Epicenter

Imagine this: Silicon Valley - the cradle of modern technology - leading an information revolution and transforming industries, while the US military lags behind. This picture is painted by the exponential development of sensors, computers, and networks. Meanwhile, military technology struggles to maintain competitiveness.

Trailblazers and Laggards

Commercial giants like Nvidia are propelling vehicular autonomy and spearheading 'edge' computing. While such companies ride high on the crest of technological advancement, the military's wave seems to have peaked prematurely. Machine learning been conspicuously absent from their tech framework, especially evident in their bare-bones data utilization.

Exploring Tech Frontiers

The scale of the information revolution isn't limited to conventional sectors; it's permeating into space, manufacturing, biotechnology, and the exciting realm of quantum science. With this expansion, the chasm between Silicon Valley's tech behemoths and Washington's military apparatus only deepens, signaling an urgent call for change.

The Need for Military Innovation Amid Great Power Competition

Struggles in US Military Innovation

The US military is grappling with adapting to rapid transformations in great power competition. Vast investment in sizeable bases and pricey platforms has shockingly left it prone to sophisticated weaponry, innovated by rivals. Past procurement programs have underwhelmed, resulting in an aging and diminishing force. Successfully leveraging information age innovations has also remained elusive, indicating some missed opportunities.

Obstacles to Change

Without the urgency of conflict, achieving military innovation is tough, largely due to a lack of real-world performance feedback. Disconcertingly, military bureaucracies are often resistant to change, clinging to tradition and antiquated notions of military might. This lack of evolution is underscored by the absence of clear strategic priorities and an apparent reluctance to make tough decisions.

Success Stories in Military Innovation

There are, nevertheless, instances of successful military innovation during peacetime. The US Navy's integration of aircraft carriers in the 1920s and '30s, as well as the Cold War-era Assault Breaker initiative stand as shining examples. These instances underscore that crystal clear threat perception, strong leadership, civil-military alignment, and experimentation underpin successful military innovation.

Emergence of China as a Global Power

The rise of China with its pursuit of advanced technologies and military expansiveness presents a notable hurdle for the US military. The Chinese Communist Party’s tech-oriented initiatives and its unsettling global campaign to acquire technology are worrisome, as is China's naval buildup, signaling ambitions of regional dominance.

Navigating Technological Rivalries

The Rise of Killer Robots

Remember those scenes from futuristic movies with autonomous killer robots? It appears reality is quickly catching up with fiction. A growing number of governments have been discussing the prospect of banning these lethal autonomous weapons since 2014, with China actively lending its support to such a move. However, they have a rather narrow definition of what constitutes these weapons, interestingly excluding the unmanned combat drones and other advanced systems they seem to be developing

Facing Off in the Technological Arena

Uncrowned by the frenzied race of modern warfare technology, China is heavily investing in its military development with far-reaching capabilities. Evidence of this is quite openly flaited; be it the parades showing off cutting-edge combat drones and supersonic missiles or graphic depictions in their Military Museum showcasing unmanned aircrafts taking down a formidable carrier.

A New Age Arms Race

Long gone are the days of crude physical arsenals. The competition of power in the 21st century is clearly earmarked by advanced technology. The race now isn’t confined to land or even the skies anymore, extending its reach into cyber space, AI, hypersonic weaponry, 5G, gene editing, and space technology. The fastest to adapt to these advancements can potentially change the face of warfare forever.

The Crucible of Sino-American Competence

At the centre of this struggle for dominance in hi-tech warfare is the intensifying competition between China and the USA. The struggle hints at some alarming prospects since the intentions and ambitions of illiberal competitors like China remain uncertain. Undoubtedly, advanced machines and technologies are going to redefine military power and the way wars are fought. The crux is, whether the USA will be able to keep pace with, or concede to, China’s bid for leadership in the technology arms race.

Ethics of Intelligent Machines in Warfare

Ethics Beyond Platforms

Focusing on intelligent machines and warfare, the discussion underscores the ethical implications related to their usage. Intelligent machines, such as barrel bombs, which caused immense human suffering in the Syrian civil war, came into limelight. However, the narrative asserts the focus should be beyond just platforms.

Humanity in a Mechanized warfare

What matters more is the welfare of innocent civilians and the values of humanity that get sidelined in destructive wars. The concept of human-machine teaming highlighted in this narrative implies a system of command and control rather than equality.

Trust & Accountability in Automation

Ethical use of intelligent machines moves around trust, training, and accountability. The narrative emphasizes that human decision making can't be completely written off with the advent of intelligent machines. Though capable of taking on complex tasks, accountability still rests with the human commanders.

Transparency in Machine Deployment

It's prudent, according to the narrative, to weave ethical considerations into the design and use of such intelligent machines. Transparency and open discussions should ideally be the guiding milestones in this domain. They could, in the longer run, free up human commanders to focus on critical ethical decisions.

Revolutionizing Warfare with Intelligent Machines and Advanced Networks

The Unfolding Transformation of Military Tech

As we look towards the horizon of military modernization, it's more than apparent that intelligent machines and the establishment of a Military Internet of Things (IoT) are set to pivot the future of warfare. Specimen of such advancements can already be seen in the Air Force Research Laboratory's new pet project- the XQ-58A. This autonomous plane pairs both affordability and functionality, boasting speed nearing sound levels and is poised to replace traditional combat aircraft in the long run.

The Military Battle Network Evolution

It's no secret that the current US military battle network reels from inefficiency, churning slowly primarily due to a deficiency in info synchronicity between various systems and platforms. Cue in the role that an exclusively Military IoT can play in tackling this issue. Not only can it accelerate the battle network's speed multifold, but also include a scope for better task delegation between humans and machines. Adding to it is the potential expansion in size of the battle network overall.

Seizing Future Prospects With Tech Intervention

To support the radical transformation, the Navy is also ushering in a new era with its invention,the Extra-Large Unmanned Underwater Vehicle (XLUUV). This autonomous, cost-effective submarine holds the prowess to cover expansive distances and execute a range of operations. Simultaneously, intelligent machines, capable of conducting complex tasks and analyzing vast data sets can unburden operators, enabling them to concentrate on strategic decision-making. The quest is to create a network of intelligent machines that enrich human understanding, potentiate informed decision-making, and facilitate military action, thereby intensifying the efficiency of the kill chain.

Unveiling the Future of Warfare

An Anticipated Era of Lethality

Jan Bloch, a visionary from Warsaw, prophetically foretold the lethal evolution of warfare in his 1898 work 'The Future of War'. The advent of innovations like smokeless gunpowder and long-range artillery, Bloch anticipated, would ramp up the danger on battlefields leading to entrenched warfare. These predictions were largely vindicated during World War I, an infamous era defined by devastating casualties and the stalemate trench warfare.

The Shifting Balance of Military Power

The landscape of military dominance has become increasingly fluid with the advancement and widespread accessibility of information technologies and precision strike weapons. More so, this shift is felt with China's aggressive strides eroding America's military superiority. The kill chain could soon see the United States and China as evenly matched peers, in a continual tussle for the upper hand.

Future Battlefields: An Unending Game of Cat and Mouse

The core elements of warfare such as movement engage a constant competition of seeking and hiding, penetrative and repelling forces. However, with satellites and sensors bringing ceaseless surveillance, successful concealment on future battlefields would be progressively challenging. With the advancements and increased deployment of high-end sensors, defenders might soon have the edge as hiding comes with mounting difficulties.

Transformations in Warfare Dynamics

Shooting, another pillar of warfare, might see a significant shift in dynamics. The rise of more accurate, lethal weapons with an extended range is disputing established US assertions about shooting. The potency of future firepower might lie more in their capacity to crush targets with sheer mass than rely on a scant number of, albeit accurately placed, shots.

Military Communications in the Age of Artificial Intelligence

Communication is the third and vital cog in the machinery of warfare. With the vulnerability of the US military's centralized communications susceptible to disruption and attack, the future could potentially see resilient, decentralized networks that seamlessly intertwines human and machine intelligence. But as much as artificial intelligence could rewire military communications, its susceptibility to disruption and deception cannot be overlooked.

Emerging Threats, Technologies, and The New Order

The eventual scorecard from these competitions in movement, shooting, and communicating will be a determining factor in securing the future military advantage. As China emerges as a formidable competitor, staying abreast with emergent threats and technologies is a matter of national interest for the United States. Given the fluid nature of warfare, a thorough reevaluation and reimagining of defense strategy are imperative for the United States.

Shifting Defense Priorities Towards Modern Threats

Repositioning National Defense Focus

Emphasizing the need for a revised approach to national defense, John McCain's letter to Secretary of Defense James Mattis proposed a refocusing on pressing challenges emanating from Russia and China. This strategic shift aimed at fostering a resilient military capable of insulating the United States from potential threats, contrary to instigating conflicts.

Strategic Competitors Redefined

Aligned with McCain's proposition, the National Defense Strategy—unveiled by Mattis in 2018—pinpointed China and Russia as topnotch strategic contenders. The strategy underscored a swift move from offensive maneuvers to defensive strategies, prioritizing denial of military sovereignty to China.

A Future-First Military Vision

To cushion itself against military dominance disputes, the US must invest in the development of smaller, economical, and smarter network systems rather than bankrolling massive, costly platforms. Such a strategic shift ensures a sophisticated defense mechanism that burdens adversaries attempting to target specific US military systems.

The Indispensability of Allies

As an asset to national defense, sturdy alliances, coupled with proficient allies, are integral. To successfully keep China’s military domination in check, allies need to take on a more inclusive role in operational planning and harbor more substantial amounts of US military power.

Challenges in Modernizing the US Military

Resistance to Military Advancements

The push for innovative changes to the US military, proposed by Secretary of Defense James Mattis and Secretary of the Navy Richard Spencer, was met with resistance. Their idea to retire the USS Harry Truman to replenish budget for new capabilities faced a striking uproar.

Inefficiencies in Military Processes

There are noted inefficiencies within military systems that pose hurdles. The Department of Defense’s budget process has been criticized for being slow-moving, replete with compromises, and discouraging to significant changes. Similarly, the requirements process, responsible for determining new military capabilities for development or procurement, is dictated by a slow consensus, often devoid of practical or technologically feasible insights.

Congressional Hurdles and Political Turbulence

The prevailing political landscape plays a key role in the decision-making process too. Particular interests and immediate issues seem to be ruling the budget process, reducing focus on future capabilities. This is further magnified by the lack of technical knowledge and expertise in advanced technology within Congress and the growing political dysfunction under the Trump administration.

The Need for Future-Oriented Leadership

Washington’s lack of imagination and forward-thinking leadership worsens resource wastage and stagnation. Removal of these barriers can pave the way for improved military capacities in technology and operations, making way for a more future-ready force.

Military Innovations in the Modern Era

Transitioning to Modern Defense Systems

In 2018, James Mattis, Secretary of Defense, and Heather Wilson, Secretary of the Air Force, put forth a proposal to cancel plans for a new version of the three-decade-old aircraft, the Joint Surveillance and Target Attack Radar System (JSTARS). The Air Force deemed the JSTARS unsuitable for a potential conflict with either China or Russia because it did not possess stealth and self-defense capabilities. Instead, a new blueprint was conceived, focusing on developing an array of unmanned aircraft and satellites capable of identifying moving targets and merging their intelligence for a comprehensive view of the battlefield.

Opposition and Successful Change

A considerable pushback was received from Congress and defense industry stakeholders due to the loss of billions of dollars they alleged the new plan would lead to. However, the Air Force managed an efficient transition to the innovative program, countering this resistance with early and active engagement with principal stakeholders. Detailed intel regarding JSTAR's vulnerability was furnished, and a commitment was made to station future program elements in the same location as JSTARS.

A New Era of Military Leadership

Ascendant military mavericks are carving out an identity for themselves within the US defense apparatus, seeking to implement systemic changes. A paradigm case is General David Berger of the Marine Corps, who is fostering an ambitious vision to redesign the Corps around leaner, cost-effective, and more autonomous systems. He is the embodiment of this emergent cadre of leaders who believe in substantial reforms.

Creating Conducive Incentives and Partnerships

It is critical for top brass within the Department of Defense and Congress to establish fresh incentives that can encourage innovation. This approach is a requisite to overcome the stifling dominance of current political system biases that favor status quo. Promoting transparency and strong partnerships between the Pentagon and Congress is essential to create unified expectations. An interesting proposal is setting aside a significant amount each year for competitions aiming to yield optimal solutions to the US military's most pressing operational problems.

Investing in Emerging Defense Technologies

The US government needs to be vested in purchasing innovative technologies and military capabilities at scale. This is a key factor in enticing private investors to fund diverse defense industrial projects, fostering a dynamic defense ecosystem. The emphasis on this underscores the acknowledgment of the strategic importance of emerging technologies for national defense.

Navigating Political Stagnancy and Defense Challenges

Mourning Opportunity for Perfect Shift

Brose's narrative demonstrates a deep respect for the late John McCain and reveals a lost chance for a major transition in Washington. The expectation was that McCain's memorial service would ignite a process of change and unity among the nation's leaders. However, the ensuing disappointment paints a poignant picture of enduring political divisiveness and inertia.

Gruesome Reality Dawns

Visiting McCain's grave deepened the author's disappointed as the realization hit him that the situation in Washington had only worsened since McCain's twilight. This finding is not just alarming but comes layered with a heartrending dose of frustration and grief.

National Defense Crisis Looms

Brose holds that the threats facing America, especially from technologically revolutionary competitors such as China, are not being taken seriously enough. Alarmingly, in some instances, it appears America aids and abets its rivals inadvertently. The narrative thus advocates for a radical change in America's approach to its national defense to avoid these impending crises.

Redefining the Kill Chain: A Technological Tryst

Embracing the US' Competitors in Kill Chain.

The Intricate Web of the 'Kill Chain'

Our readers should take note of an interesting concept called 'The Kill Chain.' Essentially, this is an intricate sequence of steps in a military operation - from gathering vital intelligence, right up to the execution of an attack. However, what's really startling is that the United States seems to be ceding its advantage of the Kill Chain to emerging geopolitical players such as China and Russia. This shift boils down to advancements in technology, along with a steady evolution in warfare tactics.

Technology: A Game-Changer for Modern Warfare

It's hard to ignore the role of technology in this new era of warfare. We're looking at cutting-edge innovations in artificial intelligence, autonomous weaponry, and cyber warfare all reshaping the nature of the Kill Chain. Address these advancements and come to terms with them - that's the real challenge that lies ahead for the United States.

Tackling Bureaucracy & Emphasizing Agility

A lesser-known hindrance to maintaining dominance in the Kill Chain, surprisingly, is bureaucracy. The agility required to adapt and innovate is often stifled by rigid, bureaucratic structures within the military. Hence, effective decision-making and the ability to innovate becomes paramount when it comes to military operations.

The Importance of Strategy & Research

Strategies simply need to adapt and there needs to be heavy investments in innovation. With an acknowledgment of these growing competitive threats, the United States must fortuitously invest its resources in research and development in order to retain its edge in the Kill Chain scenario.

Rivalling the Dragon: Urgent Need for Military Innovation

US Square Off Against China's Dragon

Jolted by the harsh reality of lagging behind China in the military-technological race, the United States faces grave risks. Despite its historical dominance, a lack of transparency within the Pentagon and Congress has allowed China to edge closer to superiority, according to Brose.

Shadows of Defeat: Pentagon's War Games

Department of Defense's war games paint a grim picture, with the US consistently losing against China. Attacks on American forces, cyber invasion, satellite destruction, and onslaughts on Pacific bases add layers to the threat potential of a prospective war. Unsettling, isn't it?

Unlocking the Future: Innovation over Tradition

The US's dependence on traditional military platforms has proven counterproductive in the face of China's rapid advancement in military technology. Brose implies an urgent need for increased focus on counterbalancing China's ascending military power through strategic rethink. As we see it, complacency is no longer an option.

Reimagining Defense: The US Military's Next Move

It's time to shift gears. A greater emphasis on defensive fighting, usage of autonomous machines, and heightened efficiency of kill chains need to be prioritized. Does this seem overwhelming? Keep in mind, though the road ahead is steep, knowledge of future warfare and emerging technologies could be the game-changer. Let's dive in!